2017 Heat Map: Emerging Markets To Watch
The French presidential elections represent the highest stakes of a busy election calendar for the first half of 2017, one that will be dominated by elections and referendums in Europe. We take a closer look at who and what to watch across global politics this year. Economist and chief geopolitical analyst with Standard Chartered Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce explains that beyond the high-stakes elections, upcoming ballots in various countries, Bulgaria, for example, “should be on your watch list too.” We examine two countries to watch, with more to come.
A referendum in Turkey and Iran’s presidential election are other high stakes polls to watch in the first half of 2017. President Erdogan of Turkey’s efforts to shift power to the presidency and its implications for the rule of law and of institutional integrity may cause concern amongst investors. There has been a huge sell off of the lira, with the currency depreciating 82 per cent since early 2014, when Turkey’s political risk began to rise.
Iran’s President Seeking Re-Election
Meanwhile, in Iran, President Rouhani will be seeking re-election in the face of hardliners opposed to closer economic co-operation with the West. The factors influencing Iran’s presidential election become even more acute in the context of President Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric, which could ultimately play in the hands of the hardliners’ longer-tern agenda.