Emerging Markets: What To Watch This Week - Emerging Market Views

Emerging Markets: What To Watch This Week

Mexico

Banco de Mexico (Banixco) meets Thursday and is expected to hike rates 25 basis points to 8.25%. Mexico’s mid-December CPI will be reported Friday. CPI rose 4.72% year-over-year in November, the lowest since June but still well above the 2-4% target range.

Brazil

The central bank (COPOM) releases its quarterly inflation report Thursday. Brazil then reports mid-December IPCA inflation and November current account data Friday. IPCA rose 4.1% year-over-year in November, the lowest since May and in the bottom half of the 3-6% target range. COPOM tilted even more dovish this month; markets expectations for the first rate hike have been pushed out to the second half of 2019.

Colombia

Central bank meets Friday and is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%.  The country’s CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year in November, slightly above target but still within the 2-4% target range. With oil prices still vulnerable, analysts believe the central bank will be cautious in starting the tightening cycle.

Indonesia

November trade data is due out today, with exports expected to rise 4.7% year-over-year and imports by 11% year-over-year. Bank Indonesia (as scheduled) meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates unchanged at 6.0%. CPI topped 3.2% year-over-year in November, the highest since May but still below the 3.5% target.