Emerging Markets: The Next Decade Of Growth - Emerging Market Views

Emerging Markets: The Next Decade Of Growth

Where will growth be the fastest in the next decade? Economies growing at 7 percent or more each year will roughly double in size in a decade. In the 2020’s, we believe just seven countries will make it into the 7 Percent Club, and most of them will be in Asia. My forecast is as follows:

  • The countries in the 7 percent Club in the 2020s are likely to be: India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Côte d’Ivoire
  • China has exited the Club, after being a member for almost four decades, reflecting both a slowdown in economic growth and a progression towards higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain
  • With young labor forces and accelerating structural reforms, India and Bangladesh will likely dominate the 7 Percent Club in the 2020’s
  • Some bright spots to watch out for from the ASEAN region, are Vietnam (with its manufacturing and export growth) and the Philippines (with its greater infrastructure spending)
  • Sustained reforms would help Ethiopia and Côte d’Ivoire to extend their stay in the 7 percent Club into the 2020s
  • 7 Percent Club members tend to have national savings rates of at least 20-25 percent of GDP