G20 2019: Market Experts Weigh In

As the 2019 G20 summit kicks off, Emerging Market Views learned what market experts are thinking (and saying) about US President Donald Trump, China, trade, the global economy and more. Read on for the latest expert analysis and continue to follow our coverage via our official Twitter and Instagram channels.

Naomi Waistell, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets and Asian Equities at Newton Investment Management

“While we would, of course, hope to see an improvement in trade relations from this week’s meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump, we cannot and do not base our investment strategy on any particular forecast from specific events such as this. Over the course of the past year against the backdrop of the ebb and flow of this trade narrative, we have observed the aggregate market’s repeated skittishness and inclination to ‘turn on a tweet’. Given this very short-duration, noisy behavior in markets, our response is to change very little, maintaining a very long-term time horizon, on which basis a sell-off in China can offer us highly attractive entry-points into stock-specific investments.”

Neil Mellor, Senior Currency Strategist, BNY Mellon

“Pending the outcome of the Trump-Xi tête-à-tête, Beijing may look to step up support for domestic growth – a prospect that is not without implications for APAC currencies. China’s efforts to support growth this year have been substantial and broad-based.”

Tim Adams, President and CEO, Institute of International Finance

“Debt sustainability and debt transparency go hand-in-hand. It is encouraging to see the G20 and other global stakeholders recognize the importance of greater transparency in private credit and capital flows to borrowing countries,”

In the communiqué issued June 8, the G20 stated:

“We support the work of the Institute of International Finance on the Voluntary Principles for Debt Transparency to improve debt transparency and sustainability of private financing and look forward to the follow-up.” 

“Greater debt transparency will, in turn, facilitate good governance, aid in the fight against corruption, and support debt sustainability.” Through the voluntary Principles, the IIF, representing the global financial services industry, strives to avoid the kind of debt accumulation that has become unsustainable, unserviceable, a drain on often desperate, poor populations and ultimately written down or written off in previous cycles.” 

“Developed by the IIF Debt Transparency Working Group — with strong support from the IIF Board of Directors — these Principles are designed to enhance transparency in private sector lending, particularly to the most vulnerable low-income countries.”